Why everything has to go right this ASX reporting season (and 4 must-watch stocks)

We are about to enter the most important month on the calendar for Australian investors. And it's not a far stretch to say that there is a lot at stake for the ASX 200 over the next four weeks. 

At the last reporting season in February, over 80% of ASX 200 companies made a profit. That number sounds good until you realise that is a) well below the long-run average and b) represented a third consecutive reporting season of declines for this metric. 

Moreover, the balance between companies growing earnings and companies not growing earnings is now 50-50. And of course, while a chunky dividend payout can help soften the blow of an otherwise rough earnings result, experience shows that earnings misses are often met with savage selling which has an impact that lingers long after the results day.

Doomsayer, I hear you say! Stop with all this negativity, I hear you cry!

Well, I'll offer you a silver lining. The bad news is that most sell-side analysts believe that ASX 200 aggregate earnings will fall by between 3-4% for the full year, to add on to the circa 3% decline we saw in FY23. 

The good news is that analysts believe there could be as much as a 10% earnings rebound in FY25 (if you believe Macquarie's view) - and the right individual stock selections could help you even exceed that figure.

But first, we have to make it through this month. 

To help you on your way through August and beyond, Signal or Noise returns from its winter hiatus with its annual August Reporting Season preview show. Joining me are three of Australia's most astute investors:

• Aaron Binsted, Portfolio Manager on the Australian Equity Strategy at Lazard Asset Management
• David Cassidy, Head of Investment Strategy at Wilsons Advisory
• Shane Oliver, Chief Economist and Head of Investment Strategy at AMP

Stay tuned to hear Binsted and Cassidy share four stocks they are watching this August as well as Shane's pick of the sectors.